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Suspicious game in Ukraine
Hello everyone About a year ago I made a relevant post about a suspicious match in Greece. The underdog became heavy favourite before the match start, a radio producer had talked about it a week ago and the final score verified the "information" of home win with many goals, ending 3-1. However, the community here got upset and tried to deny the fact that it was setup. So here comes another controversy. This is a match that played a couple of hours ago, Ukraine second league, Illychivets vs Hirnyk-Sport. I will provide everything I have and I will let the community here decide whether this match was "fixed" or not. It first seemed very suspicious to me when at 73' mins the score was 1-1 between these 2 teams and bet365 had available only the "over 3.5" market at 1.66 odds (!!!) Really suspicious to give such low odds at this time when you need 2 more goals... Home team to win was at about 1.25 odds. The odds were stable for about 5 minutes before that. I use a group page to post live tips etc. for my followers and this is the first post I made at that time about this match => http://prntscr.com/d76806 I visited betfair to check the money movement on this event. Close to 200k pounds were bet on this match, pretty unusual for an Ukrainian 2nd league match. This is my 2nd post about this match with screenshot from betfair attached, 15 minutes before the end of the game, score still 1-1 ======> http://prntscr.com/d769xk Please pay attention to the money being bet on home team at around 76' - 78'. At that time bet365 froze the markets until the end of the match and I was only looking the odds movement in betfair. Notice also that I make a prediction about the final score based on the "1X2" market money movement and "OveUnder" market money movement. 2-1 came at around 83'-84'. I went to check the betfair market for "Over 3.5 goals" right then and what I saw was like the "cherry on the top". 1.5k pounds bet on "Over 3.5 goals" at around 85' when the market is at 1.66 (!!!) when it should be at about 4.00 or more. Unfortunately I didn't think of screenshotting this at that time. Final Score ===> http://prntscr.com/d76bx2 The comments are yours. PS. it was a 2/1 half time/full time !!
Three losses today Goteborg - Orebro 2 5,50 1,82 u 3-2 -1,82 u Malmo FF - Elfsborg 2 5,50 1,82 u 1-0 -1,82 u Atvidabergs - Syrianska X 3,60 2,78 u 2-1 -2,78 u Its not so much to say about it. It was two longshots and one draw and none of the picks is something that I can expect to hit home with. When Göteborg scored just before halftime to 1-0, for me thats realistic to say that that bet was gone. What I did just as an extra bet was to bet over 2,5 goals live. I dont like to setup bets of cash in style but thats a compromise to do it this way. Even if the bet was gone on Örebro, in theory 2,5 goals could happend and that result could have been 1-2. Anyways that doesnt matter and I did pick up the over bet. Looking at Malmö game. They almost failed to win the game. Very late goal and player showing individual skill got Malmö the goal. Sure draw wouldnt had done anything for my specific pick but a very tight call and win for Malmö att that odds were they had a very low odds, gut feeling tells me that the odds was to low betting on Malmö. But then it doesnt matter. A win is a win. Åtvidaberg draw was gone and wasnt even close since they had 2-0 and 2-1 came very late in the game. What I didnt find bet on today but I did analyze was Swiss super league and challange league. What I like is that I dont analyze to deep back in the season. I just go back 2 seasons and get a relative slow sample. The sample size may not matter that much, its just to be "lucky" to get combination of odds on 1x2 that have similaritys enough to compare them. My main focus is time of year and the strenght that the team may represent so its not that I follow any team.
Something I though about when it comes to the lower leagues.
Picking past years data can be more miss guiding in the lower leagues because there is more change of teams from season to season so the group of teams can be that different from year to year that it make it difficult to use and compare. Its better with the highest division were alots of teams still can maintain relative same strenght in relation to eachother. I like cups more because for each round that is played I should be fair to assume that overall the teams that qualify for a certain round in a cup also have a certain odds that comes with it. Instead of spend alots of time decide and figure out what division a team play it the odds becomes the indicator were the team comes from also the odds is a better indicator than just the divisions because a top team in a division can match odds that look similar to bottom teams in a division higher. Completed a bonus run on bet365. So that was to rollover 19000 SEK I think I made some misstakes that I can fix for next bonus run. The basic for rolling through a bonus is quite simple. Lets say you should roll through a bonus of 300 SEK for instance. Mostley the bookie want you to do the sum 3 times before the money becomes yours. So start with 300 SEK and simply do your bets as usual. I like to apply that aggressive money managment on that small 300 SEK bankroll that includes the sum of money divided by the odds. So then its just to place the bets accourding to that moneymanagment. Anyways, this is just my notes more or less. Thoughts more than something deep and thoughtful. I keep it here because its not that interesting for all to read this. If you bump into this you have probably looked at my profile. :).
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Today football prediction 06.04.2019 Free picks - YouTube
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